Olympic 2024: Score-wise analysis of Indian shooters and their medal chances

One of the adages being pronounced in pre-Paris Olympics predictions is that the sport of Shooting will decide whether India can reach a historic double-digit medal mark, but refraining from naming individual shooters as medal hopes.

This is of course down to the unpredictable nature of the sport, where decimal points and millimeters separate winners from the also-rans. Often, India has sent world number 1s and 2s only to have them return empty-handed from the Olympics, whereas some unlikely shooters have won us medals.

As Gagan Narang, one of these surprise medallists from 2012 and the chef de mission of the Paris Olympics contingent, told the media recently, "We can’t be sure of medals at the Olympics from any athlete. Nobody expected a medal from Vijay Kumar when he went to London, but he still got us a silver. You cannot underestimate anyone. It all depends on their state of mind on the day.”

Despite high expectations, India’s shooters have not managed to strike any metal at any Olympic edition since then. But this time may be different.

With 21 quota places, this is the first time that India has representation in every category. The trials held to select the team were the most competitive ever, with weightage given to recent form over reputation.

The other buzzword - pressure - is relatively lower on the current team. No shooter can be hyped up as world no.1, but there have been promising scores in recent world tournaments.

An analysis of Indian pistol and rifle shooters’ recent scores against the top scores registered around the world over the last year shows we can expect to be in the reckoning for medals in at least four events. Sarabjot Singh, Sift Samra, Aishwary Tomar, Ramita Jindal, and Manu Bhaker’s recent scores stand out in particular.

Following is a comparison of the average scores of India’s shooters from last year’s World Championships, the three most recent World Cups this year, and the national trials, compared to the average scores which were shot for medal places and final qualification places in these competitions and the last Olympics.

*Competitions considered to calculate average gold medal and final qualification score in chronological order: Tokyo Olympics, 2023 World Championships, Granada World Cup, Baku World Cup, Munich World Cup.

Medal hopefuls:

Men’s 10m air pistol

Sarabjot Singh - 578 (2023 WC)+581 (Granada)+588 (Munich)+580 (Trials) - 582

Arjun Singh Cheema - 577 (2023 WC)+ 582 (Munich)+579 (Trials) - 579

Avg Gold medal score - 586+587+585+587+588 - 587

Avg Final qualification score - 578+582+582+582+583 - 581

Expectation: Sarabjot’s gold medal at the recent Munich World Cup, which featured all the Olympic-bound shooters, makes him a prime contender for an Olympic medal.

This discipline has been one of India’s favourite over recent Olympics, and Sarabjot will be looking to repair the heartbreaks suffered by Saurabh Chaudhary and Jitu Rai. Arjun Cheema’s scores have not been of finalist calibre.

Women’s 10m air rifle

Ramita Jindal - 630.1 (2023 WC)+633.0 (Munich)+631.7 (Trials) - 631.6

Elavenil Valarivan - 630.8 (Granada)+628.3 (Munich)+631.5 (Trials) - 630.2

Avg Gold medal score - 632.9+634.5+634.1+636.3+635.3 - 634.6

Avg Final qualification score - 628.5+630.8+631.1+631.2+632.5 - 630.8

Expectation: One finalist at max from India. Chance of medal from Ramita. The more consistent shooter, Ramita’s score at Munich WC would have been good enough for a medal at the last Olympics, but rifle standards have risen globally since.

Her score of 636.4 at the last national trial is an unofficial world record. At the least, Ramita will be expected to make it to the final and challenge for medals. Elavenil has an outside chance of making it to the final too.

Women’s 50m rifle 3 positions

Sift Samra - 589 (2023 WC)+593 (Munich)+588 (Trials) - 590

Anjum Moudgil - 589 (Munich)+588 (Trials) - 589

Gold medal score - 591+594+596 - 594

Final qualification score - 587+589+593 - 590

Expectation: Sift Samra carries medal hopes in an unlikely event this time. Her score of 594 in the Asian Games last year makes her a realistic contender. One of India’s best shooters currently, Sift will be expected to reach the final. She has crossed the Asian barrier already, and she will be within fighting distance of a medal against the USA and European nations like Norway and Germany.

Mixed 10m air pistol

Sarabjot Singh/Manu Bhaker

Arjun Cheema/Rhythm Sangwan

Expectation: Sarabjot and Manu, both of whom are in top form this year, could qualify for the medal matches. Given Russia’s exclusion this time, this discipline remains one of India’s medal hopes.

Chinese and Turkish pairs have been topping the scores in this discipline since last year, but India, who are fielding two untested pairs, are among a few nations well within fighting distance. Manu was part of a duo that topped qualification in this discipline at Tokyo 2020 and generally lorded this event in the pre-Tokyo cycle. She will be looking to do one better with the in-form Sarabjit, who has a mixed team WC gold from last year, in tow.

Dark horses

Men’s 50m rifle 3 positions

Aishwary Tomar - 583 (2023 WC)+592 (Munich)+588 (Trials) - 588

Swapnil Kusale - 586 (Munich)+585 (Trials) - 586

Gold medal score - 588+593+597 - 593

Final qualification score - 584+588+592 - 587

Expectation: All hopes on Aishwary Tomar. He consistently shot above 590 in the four national trials. Rifle standards have risen around the world, but Aishwary’s recent form places him among the best. Medals might be difficult to reach for, but a place in the final could be expected.

Mixed 10m air rifle

Arjun Babuta/Ramita Jindal

Sandeep Singh/Elavenil Valarivan

Expectation: Good chances of being in the reckoning for a bronze medal but all of the Chinese, USA, and Norway teams are expected to be ahead. Arjun Babuta and Elavenil Valarivan, the two less consistent shooters, will be required to be on their best day for India to stand an outside chance of a medal.

Women’s 25m pistol

Manu Bhaker - 580 (2023 WC)+585 (Trials) - 583

Esha Singh - 581 (2023 WC)+584 (Munich)+583 (Trials) - 583

Gold medal score - 590+591+588+590 - 590

Final qualification score - 584+583+583+584 - 584

Expectation: Manu Bhaker’s form at the national trials, where she consistently shot around the 585 mark, keeps her in good stead of making it to the finals. A medal might be too much to expect, but her recent record in finals makes her an outside prospect. Esha Singh’s scores have not been far behind either.

Men’s 10m air rifle

Arjun Babuta - 635.1 (Munich)+629.7 (Trials) - 632.4

Sandeep Singh - 629.6 (Granada)+631.4 (Munich)+631.7 (Trials) - 630.9

Gold medal score - 632.7+633.9+633.9+636.0+635.4 - 634.4

Final qualification score - 629.2+629.3+630.4+630.5+631.4 - 630.2

Expectation: One finalist. The new shooter on the block Sandeep is the more consistent, and the likelier to reach the final. He hit a score of 634.4 in the first national trial, which is an Olympic medal-winning score. Arjun’s scores are unpredictable, but if he reaches the final, he has an even better chance to medal, given his record of high scores in finals.

Low chances

Women’s 10m air pistol

Manu Bhaker - 576 (Granada)+ 578 (Trials) - 577

Rhythm Sangwan - 580 (Granada)+575 (Munich)+ 577 (Trials) - 577

Gold medal score - 587+584+580+581+588 - 584

Final qualification score - 577+576+574+577+578 - 576

Expectation: No finalist. Both Rhythm and Manu stand an outside chance of making it to the final, but their scores have not been of medal-winning calibre.

Men’s 25m pistol

Vijayveer Sidhu - 577 (2023 WC)+587 (Munich)+ 580 (Trials)

Anish Bhanwala - 575 (2023 WC)+579 (Munich)+583 (Trials)

Gold medal score - 587+588+591+593 - 590

Final qualification score - 582+585+586+587 - 585

Expectation: No finalist. One of India’s weaker disciplines, Vijayveer Sidhu’s scores have been improving as well as consistently being around the 580-mark, but it will take his best to earn a final berth.