Deciphering the draw: Prannoy, Sindhu, Satwik-Chirag and oddity of their groups

The Olympics are never meant to be a walk in the park.

That said, every athlete hopes for the rub of the green to go their way. However, the Badminton draw for Paris 2024 hints at a tough route for the Indian shuttlers. And given the feeble form the Indian players are in, things could get rather precarious.

India has thus far won medals in badminton in three consecutive Olympics, starting from London 2012 where Saina Nehwal was the first Indian shuttler to win a bronze medal.

But will the trend continue and can India's shuttlers emerge unscathed?

Prannoy has his work cut out

Form, fitness and rankings are important variables for assessing a player's chance of winning a medal at the Olympics. And seedings are decided based on that.

Until a year ago HS Prannoy was in terrific form and seemingly was in the best phase of his career. He even pocketed a bronze at the World Championships, beating reigning Olympic and then world champion Viktor Axelsen.

Prannoy fought tough battles throughout the season, stomping around the court and challenging every opponent, often snatching wins from the jaws of defeat.

In the World Championships semifinal against World No. 2 Axelsen, one of the most consistent players on the BWF World Tour, Prannoy endured a 68-minute battle before prevailing in the three-game duel.

He rightfully earned the moniker of 'comeback man'. At 31, he was a fit and fiercer competitor, one that nobody could dare to write off.

Prannoy had carved a playing style for himself and hardly got bogged down by a set back in the opening game.

Such was his grace that he made comebacks from the most hopeless of situations a habit, making it look like an art form.

He snatched wins from anyone in any situation and upset his opponents along the way, be it Axelsen, arguably the most complete on the BWF circuit now, or the wily Chinese player Weng Hong Yang or Japan's elastic Kodai Naraoka.

While winning energy-sapping matches, Prannoy also forced his opponents to think desperately about him, whilst leaving a deep scar of defeat.

He won his first BWF World Tour title at the Malaysia Masters in 2023. It was his first title since 2017.

With the Paris Olympics just a year away, Prannoy appeared as a genuine medal contender for India. Riding high on confidence, and possessing a powerful game and magnificent court coverage, Prannoy was unstoppable.

He had the stomach for a fight, ran endlessly, retrieved smashes and along the way achieved his career-highest ranking of six on August 29.

But that one heck of a season for Prannoy now looks like a thing of the past.

His new season started with a disappointment. Barring a third-place finish at the India Open, he has been a shadow of his illustrious former self.

The enemy was chronic gastrointestinal disorder.

Prannoy vomited everything he ate whenever he took to the court. It took a toll on his mind, and his body no longer complemented him.

This reflected on his journey in 2024, a year peppered with a string of first and second-round exits resulting in him slipping away from the top 10 of BWF World Rankings.

To make matters worse, if coach Pullela Gopichand is to be believed, the 13th seed has still been recovering from chikungunya. And this is not an ideal situation for Prannoy, just before the Olympics.

Though Gopichand will bank on Prannoy's ability to fight back, the concerns remain.

Slotted in Group K, on paper, Prannoy should not find it hard to secure a place in the knockouts. But Vietnam's Le Duc Phat and Germany's Fabian Roth will be no pushovers.

But having two unheralded players in the group would mean that Prannoy will have ample time to get his mojo back before the Round of 16, where his real test, in the form of either Lakshya Sen or Jonatan Christie, will emerge.

Delicate case of Lakshya

Lakshya's journey at the Paris Olympics will either leave us amazed or frustrated.

Placed in Group L, one of two groups out of 13 to have four players, Lakshya will have to come flying out of the blocks.

He has been pitted against one of the most in-form players of the season, World No. 3 Christie, who has been in a rich vein of form this year, winning the All-England Open and Badminton Asia Championships gold medal.

Lakshya trails 1-4 on the head-to-head against Christie, and the last time the Indian shuttler beat the Indonesian was in 2020 at the Badminton Asia Team Championships. Since then, Lakshya has suffered four straight defeats to Christie, the latest one coming at the Thomas Cup in May this year.

With Kevin Cordon of Guatemala, the shuttler who pulled off surprising results by reaching the semifinal in Tokyo in 2021, and Julien Carraggi of Belgium being the other two opponents in the group, Lakshya cannot afford to put down his guard even for a moment.

However, given Lakshya's ability to perform on the big stage, he will be the player to watch out for.

For instance, at the Asian Games team championship final, Lakshya roiled World No. 1 Shi Yu Qi 22-20, 14-21, 21-18 in India's narrow 2-3 defeat against China.

He is also a Thomas Cup champion and All-England Open finalist. This year, he also reached the semifinals of the French and All England Open.

Even if Lakshya, who recently went down five places to be ranked 19th, manages to beat Christie and top the group, he will have a tricky encounter to overcome in the Round of 16, with Prannoy likely to be his rival.

And if Lakshya manages to get the better of Prannoy, he may have to negotiate a mighty challenge against Kodai Naraoka, the highly agile Japanese shuttler.

However, considering Lakshya's big match prowess, he will not be a weakling against either Christie or Naraoka.

Sindhu awaits the Bing Jiao test

The two-time Olympic medallist PV Sindhu has been placed in a rather easy Group M alongside World No. 75 Kristin Kuuba of Estonia and World No. 111 Fatimah Nabaaha Abdul Razzaq of Maldives.

Given the nature of the group, it is only a matter of time before Sindhu, preparing for the Games in the German industrial town of Saarbrucken, would reach the round of 16 without any hiccup.

In the pre-quarterfinal, we could see a repeat of the Tokyo Olympics semifinal, with Sindhu running into China's He Bing Jiao, the current World No. 8. If Sindhu overcomes Bing Jiao, she may have to face another daunting task of beating Chen Yu Fei, the reigning Olympic champion, in the quarterfinals.

Sindhu, the 10th seed, trails 9-11 against Bing Jiao, with her latest defeat coming in the Asian Games at Hangzhou.

However, Sindhu does have a trick up her sleeve - mind-boggling consistency at the World Championships and the Olympics. Remarkably, she has never lost against a Chinese shuttler at these two most vaunted international events.

That said, Sindhu does not have a superior record against Yu Fei though. With a 6-6 head-to-head record, the Indian will fancy her chances. Their latest encounter, at the French Open quarterfinal, turned out to be an hour and 32 minutes long battle, which Sindhu lost in three games.

With her road to the quarterfinals not dotted with any other big names like An Se Young or Carolina Marin (she incidentally has a woeful record against the latter), Sindhu will be up for the challenge of securing her third straight Olympic medal.

Can Ashwini-Tanisha stage an upset?

In women's doubles, India will be represented by Ashwini Ponnappa and Tanisha Crasto.

The unseeded Indian duo, ranked 19th in the world, are not considered medal contenders, but they do have the stomach for a fight.

The partnership of Ashwini and Tanisha, assembled only a year ago, has risen quickly through the world rankings while offering a glimmer of hope.

At the Paris Olympics, they have been drawn into an extremely tough Group C alongside formidable opponents.

However, Ashwini and Tanisha will carry with them an element of surprise.

The World No. 4 Nami Matsuyama-Chiharu Shida of Japan, World No. 7 Kim So Yeong-Kong Hee Yong, and World No. 27 Setyana Mapasa-Angela Wu of Australia are unfamiliar with the Indian pair's style and this might work in Ashwini and Tanisha's favour at Paris 2024.

Duel of Satwik-Chirag and Alfian-Ardianto

India's best hopes, however, remain the former World No. 1 men's doubles combination of Satwiksairaj Rankireddy and Chirag Shetty.

Satwik and Chirag are the third-seeded pair and the leader of Group C that has three more pairings.

Having won the French Open twice, in 2022 and 2024, Paris is a happy hunting ground for the Indian pair.

At the Paris Olympics, they are pitted against Lucas Corvee and Ronan Labar, the World No. 39 French pair who were accommodated later in the Olympic roaster by the BWF following a Court of Arbitration of Sport (CAS) ruling.

The group also featured World No. 6 Fajar Alfian and Muhammad Rian Ardianto, who will shoulder Indoaneia's bid to win their fourth Olympic gold in badminton, and Germany's World No. 46 Mark Lamsfuss and Marvin Seidel.

From the Indian perspective, this is a modest group, and they are almost assured of a quarterfinal berth, with two pairings advancing to the knockouts.

Going by the essence of the draw, nobody needs to be intimated about the two pairs that could well be qualifying for the quarterfinals.

However, for Satwik and Chirag, the objective would be to top the group. And to achieve that, they will have to keep their three-match unbeaten streak against Alfian and Ardianto intact.

The Indonesians have not beaten the Indians since 2019. But the recent form of the All England Open champions Alfian and Ardianto promises a thrilling contest between the familiar foes.

But it won't be smooth sailing for the Indians. A shoulder injury to Satwik remains a concern for the pair in their pursuit to create history.

The Indian duo pulled out from their title defence at the Badminton Asia Championships in April due to Satwik's injury. But their return to form by winning the Thailand Open was a testament to their grit.

Overcoming an early Indonesian test will only put Satwik and Chirag on course for glory in Paris.

This year, they have reached four finals and won twice. They also attained the World No. 1 ranking before slipping to third position.

After their historic performances in the Thomas Cup, Asian Games and the BWF World Tour, they will now look to script a new chapter for Indian doubles by finishing on top of the podium.